WIN SHARE	PREDICTIONS FOR 1966
	Position		Adjusted
	Player	Pitcher	Total Win	Estimated	Estimated
	Wins	Wins	Shares	Wins	Losses	Finish
AMERICAN LEAGUE
CLEVELAND SPIDERS	177	79	256	85	77	5th
FLUSHING RATS	166	82	248	83	79	7th
FRANKFORT TIGERS	174	108	282	94	68	4th
LAFAYETTE BLUE SOX	172	119	291	97	65	3rd
LINCOLN GRAYS	189	115	304	101	61	2nd
MACKINAW STRAIGHTS	159	93	252	84	78	6th
POCONO PELICANS	153	73	226	75	87	8th
ROSSVILLE CUBS	195	112	307	102	60	1st
SMITHFIELD SENIORS	116	66	182	61	101	9th
NATIONAL LEAGUE
ALMA RIFLES	165	89	254	85	77	1st
ASHEVILLE TOURISTS	119	104	223	74	88	6th
BROOKLYN WONDERS	170	61	231	77	85	4th
DAYTON TRIANGLES	134	93	227	76	86	5th
ELKHART ELECTRIC EELS	164	82	246	82	80	2nd
EVANSTON BLACK SOX	122	62	184	61	101	9th
HOLLYWOOD STARS	124	88	212	71	91	7th tie
ROCKFORD FOREST CITYS	159	80	239	80	82	3rd
SCHAUMBURG SAXONS	151	61	212	71	91	7th tie
				1459	1457
The Win Shares Method by Bill James can help give us a sneak preview to the 1966 season.  I took
the win shares listed in James' book and added them up for each SPB1 franchise.  The 1st column
will list the position players values (offense and defense), while the second column gives pitcher's
contributions.  The totals will give us Estimated Win Shares for each team.  I had to multiply each Win
Share total by 0.907 (the difference between a 20 team Major League and a 18 team SPB1 League).
Since 3 Win Shares equals an Estimated Team Win, I just divided the new totals by 3 to get estimated
team wins. As an example the CUBS had 307 win shares and divided by 3 gives them an estimated
102 wins.  Since we play a 162 game season, then their estimated losses would be 60.
There are a few factors that I did not compensate for.  Each team does not play an equal number of
games against every other team.  You could get a more accurate number by adjusting wins within the
SPB1 American and National Leagues.  This method does not account for LUCK.  Sometimes in a
season a team will get some breaks and sometimes, they won't.  It cannot distinguish between team
depth.  If a squad has two good starting second basemen, the method would count them both, though
the team can only play one of the players.  It cannot distinguish the pitchers, between starts and relief.
The team may have no bullpen depth or very weak starters, either one which may hurt your final
won-lost record.  While this method measures actual player contributions, the Diamond Mind Baseball
Computer Game may not recreate the players actual worth.
1966	AMERICAN LEAGUE
All of the big boys seem to be lined up in the Junior Circuit.  The top 4 teams would easily breeze in
National League, while three others would mount serious challenges.  The cream of the crop appears to
be the Cubs and Grays.  The Cubs have the strongest offense led by Agee, Aparicio, Callison, Howard,
Rose, and Santo.  The Grays will rely on the killer K's (Killebrew and Koufax), and a little help from
Aaron and Maloney.  If either of these teams falter, the Blue Sox and Tigers could move up.  The Tigers
will have Norm Cash and Earl Wilson available, while Mays and Marichal give the Blue Sox a dynamic
duo.  The Spiders, Rats, and Straights should challenge the .500 mark and with a little luck could
look at 90 wins.  Dick Allen and Fred Valentine will provide some firepower for the Spiders.  The
Rats will have Gaylord Perry loading up the ball, while Stargell and Yaz will try to clear some fences.
The Straights will use Felipe Alou, Al Kaline and Dick McAuliffe to push across the runs, but will need
Phil Regan to "save" their staff.  The Pelicans will use Jose Cardenal and Donn Clendenon to muster
some offense, though Jim Perry may be alone on the mound.  The Seniors have Rico Carty and the
dreams of Seaver, Bench, Carew, or Reggie on their minds.
Usually a Win Share of 30 could mean an MVP or Cy Young in that player's future.  The following
AL players could be this year's front runners: Dick Allen (Spiders), Al Kaline (Straights), Harmon
Killebrew (Grays), Willie Mays (Blue Sox), Ron Santo (Cubs), Sandy Koufax (Grays), and Juan
Marichal (Blue Sox).
1966	NATIONAL LEAGUE
The first team to finish .500 WINS!  The Rifles, Electric Eels and Forest Citys seem poised to make
the most serious attempts at respectability.  The Rifles have the strongest offense led by Clemente and
McCovey.  The Electric Eels have potential triple crown contender Frank Robinson to lead their offense
while Jim Bunning could be the league's top hurler.  The Forest Citys have no superstars, but will have
to rely on solid performers (9 position players and 6 hurlers with at least ten Win Shares).  Good news
for the rest of the teams in the Senior Circuit.  They may be bad, but they all have a shot at 4th place.
Of course, that means that they also have a shot at 9th.  Very little separates the Wonders, Triangles,
Tourists, Stars, Saxons, and Black Sox.  The Wonders have the top offense keyed by Boog Powell.
Their pitching will slow them as Sonny Siebert is the only reliable hurler.  The Saxons are in the same
boat as Tony Oliva heads a decent offense, but there is not much pitching.  The Tourists have Gary
Peters, Sam McDowell, and Bill McCool, but Jim Ray Hart is their only Ray of hope with a bat.  The
Triangles have Billy Williams, Matty Alou, and Orlando Cepeda on offense, with Chris Short on the
mound.  Bob Gibson will try to hurl the Stars into the first division, but won't get much help from the
hitters.  It will be a long year with Tom Haller as the top position player.  The Black Sox will have to
enjoy Larry Jackson, Tony Conigliaro, and Rusty Staub with a look towards "next year".
The best National League players appear to be Frank Robinson (Electric Eels), Willie McCovey
(Rifles), Roberto Clemente (Rifles), and Jim Bunning (Electric Eels).
I hope everyone enjoys these predictions and wish you the best of luck in the upcoming 1966
Season's Past Baseball session.