WIN SHARE PREDICTIONS FOR 1966
Position Adjusted
Player Pitcher Total Win Estimated Estimated
Wins Wins Shares Wins Losses Finish
AMERICAN LEAGUE
CLEVELAND SPIDERS 177 79 256 85 77 5th
FLUSHING RATS 166 82 248 83 79 7th
FRANKFORT TIGERS 174 108 282 94 68 4th
LAFAYETTE BLUE SOX 172 119 291 97 65 3rd
LINCOLN GRAYS 189 115 304 101 61 2nd
MACKINAW STRAIGHTS 159 93 252 84 78 6th
POCONO PELICANS 153 73 226 75 87 8th
ROSSVILLE CUBS 195 112 307 102 60 1st
SMITHFIELD SENIORS 116 66 182 61 101 9th
NATIONAL LEAGUE
ALMA RIFLES 165 89 254 85 77 1st
ASHEVILLE TOURISTS 119 104 223 74 88 6th
BROOKLYN WONDERS 170 61 231 77 85 4th
DAYTON TRIANGLES 134 93 227 76 86 5th
ELKHART ELECTRIC EELS 164 82 246 82 80 2nd
EVANSTON BLACK SOX 122 62 184 61 101 9th
HOLLYWOOD STARS 124 88 212 71 91 7th tie
ROCKFORD FOREST CITYS 159 80 239 80 82 3rd
SCHAUMBURG SAXONS 151 61 212 71 91 7th tie
1459 1457
     The Win Shares Method by Bill James can help give us a sneak preview to the 1966 season.  I took
the win shares listed in James' book and added them up for each SPB1 franchise.  The 1st column
will list the position players values (offense and defense), while the second column gives pitcher's
contributions.  The totals will give us Estimated Win Shares for each team.  I had to multiply each Win
Share total by 0.907 (the difference between a 20 team Major League and a 18 team SPB1 League).
Since 3 Win Shares equals an Estimated Team Win, I just divided the new totals by 3 to get estimated
team wins. As an example the CUBS had 307 win shares and divided by 3 gives them an estimated
102 wins.  Since we play a 162 game season, then their estimated losses would be 60.
     There are a few factors that I did not compensate for.  Each team does not play an equal number of
games against every other team.  You could get a more accurate number by adjusting wins within the
SPB1 American and National Leagues.  This method does not account for LUCK.  Sometimes in a
season a team will get some breaks and sometimes, they won't.  It cannot distinguish between team
depth.  If a squad has two good starting second basemen, the method would count them both, though
the team can only play one of the players.  It cannot distinguish the pitchers, between starts and relief.  
The team may have no bullpen depth or very weak starters, either one which may hurt your final
won-lost record.  While this method measures actual player contributions, the Diamond Mind Baseball
Computer Game may not recreate the players actual worth.
1966 AMERICAN LEAGUE
     All of the big boys seem to be lined up in the Junior Circuit.  The top 4 teams would easily breeze in 
National League, while three others would mount serious challenges.  The cream of the crop appears to 
be the Cubs and Grays.  The Cubs have the strongest offense led by Agee, Aparicio, Callison, Howard,
Rose, and Santo.  The Grays will rely on the killer K's (Killebrew and Koufax), and a little help from
Aaron and Maloney.  If either of these teams falter, the Blue Sox and Tigers could move up.  The Tigers 
will have Norm Cash and Earl Wilson available, while Mays and Marichal give the Blue Sox a dynamic
duo.  The Spiders, Rats, and Straights should challenge the .500 mark and with a little luck could
look at 90 wins.  Dick Allen and Fred Valentine will provide some firepower for the Spiders.  The
Rats will have Gaylord Perry loading up the ball, while Stargell and Yaz will try to clear some fences. 
The Straights will use Felipe Alou, Al Kaline and Dick McAuliffe to push across the runs, but will need
Phil Regan to "save" their staff.  The Pelicans will use Jose Cardenal and Donn Clendenon to muster
some offense, though Jim Perry may be alone on the mound.  The Seniors have Rico Carty and the
dreams of Seaver, Bench, Carew, or Reggie on their minds.
     Usually a Win Share of 30 could mean an MVP or Cy Young in that player's future.  The following
AL players could be this year's front runners: Dick Allen (Spiders), Al Kaline (Straights), Harmon
Killebrew (Grays), Willie Mays (Blue Sox), Ron Santo (Cubs), Sandy Koufax (Grays), and Juan
Marichal (Blue Sox).
1966 NATIONAL LEAGUE
     The first team to finish .500 WINS!  The Rifles, Electric Eels and Forest Citys seem poised to make 
the most serious attempts at respectability.  The Rifles have the strongest offense led by Clemente and 
McCovey.  The Electric Eels have potential triple crown contender Frank Robinson to lead their offense
while Jim Bunning could be the league's top hurler.  The Forest Citys have no superstars, but will have
to rely on solid performers (9 position players and 6 hurlers with at least ten Win Shares).  Good news
for the rest of the teams in the Senior Circuit.  They may be bad, but they all have a shot at 4th place. 
Of course, that means that they also have a shot at 9th.  Very little separates the Wonders, Triangles,
Tourists, Stars, Saxons, and Black Sox.  The Wonders have the top offense keyed by Boog Powell.
Their pitching will slow them as Sonny Siebert is the only reliable hurler.  The Saxons are in the same
boat as Tony Oliva heads a decent offense, but there is not much pitching.  The Tourists have Gary
Peters, Sam McDowell, and Bill McCool, but Jim Ray Hart is their only Ray of hope with a bat.  The
Triangles have Billy Williams, Matty Alou, and Orlando Cepeda on offense, with Chris Short on the
mound.  Bob Gibson will try to hurl the Stars into the first division, but won't get much help from the 
hitters.  It will be a long year with Tom Haller as the top position player.  The Black Sox will have to
enjoy Larry Jackson, Tony Conigliaro, and Rusty Staub with a look towards "next year".
     The best National League players appear to be Frank Robinson (Electric Eels), Willie McCovey
(Rifles), Roberto Clemente (Rifles), and Jim Bunning (Electric Eels).
     I hope everyone enjoys these predictions and wish you the best of luck in the upcoming 1966
Season's Past Baseball session.