SPB4 – 1976   WIN SHARE PREDICTIONS


I’m back for a second try at predicting results using Bill James’ Win Share Method.  
First lets take a look back at how the method worked in 1975.  Win Shares predicted 
that the Magpies, Toros, Oaks and, 5-0’s would win their divisions, while Mud Hens and 
Lemmings could give the Toros and Oaks some trouble.

The Magpies and 5-0’s each won their divisions, while the Mud Hens and Lemmings took 
the other two.  The Oaks won 106 games, but finished second to the Lemmings.  The Toros 
finished third in the AL West.  

How does it look for 1976 and the new division alignments?  The system has the Hired 
Guns taking the AL East, the Serranos in the AL West, the Generals in the NL East, 
and the Barons in the NL West.  The strongest division appears to be the NL West, 
where the 5-0’s, Gnomes and Oaks should all take aim at the Barons.  The NL East 
could also be close with the Storm and Mud Hens in position to knock off the Generals.

The Plainsmen and Barons appear to have the strongest pitching staffs, while the 5-0’s, 
Magpies and Mud Hens have the best position players.  Joe Morgan (ANO), Mike Schmidt (KCB), 
and George Brett (Haw) are aiming at the NL MVP.  Mark Fidrych (LAF) and Luis Tiant (HAW) 
have their eyes on the NL Cy Young.  Cesar Cedeno (WPP) and Pete Rose (GOT) should chase 
the AL MVP award.  Jim Palmer (WPP) and Frank Tanana (DOR) want to add the AL CY Young 
hardware to their trophy cases.

AL EAST			Hit/Field	Pitch		Total		Adj. Total		Expected W-L
Wright-Platt Plainsmen	180		144		324		299			100-62
Cedar Rapids Hired Guns	164		110		274		253			 84-78
Kenosha Comets		189		 80		269		248			 83-79
Edmonton Magpies	208		 58		266		245			 82-80
Louisiana Lightning	149		 91		240		221			 74-88
Rossville Ramblers	167		 38		205		189			 63-99

AL WEST			Hit/Field	Pitch		Total		Adj. Total		Expected W-L
Baroda Serranos		186		 97		283		261			 87-75
Gotham City Ghosts	161		 97		258		238			 79-83
Brooklyn Buccaneers	158		 88		246		227			 76-86
Dorsey Lemmings		145		 95		240		221			 74-88
Pocono Scouts		139		 79		218		201			 67-95

NL EAST			Hit/Field	Pitch		Total		Adj. Total		Expected W-L
Lafayette Generals	181		126		307		283			 94-68
Bronx Storm		179		110		289		267			 89-73
Toledo Mud Hens		205		 78		283		261			 87-75
Frankfort Firebugs	163		 92		255		235			 78-84
Harrisville Mountain Men141		 72		213		197			 65-97
Ruppert Mundys		118		 69		187		173			 58-104

NL WEST			Hit/Field	Pitch		Total		Adj. Total		Expected W-L
Kansas City Barons	182		129		311		287			 96-66
Hawaii 5-0’s		208		102		310		286			 95-67
Anok Island Gnomes	194		 98		292		269			 90-72
Oakland Oaks		168		114		282		260			 87-75
Montezuma Revenge	155		 87		242		223			 74-88

Enjoy these predictions and Good Luck to all 1976 SPB4 managers!